The bands the rows are taken from
A feed is not just a sample. It is a sample weighted towards the top of the range, because the top of the range is what a display is for. The weighting is measurable, which makes it the most useful thing a reader can learn from a feed.
- Qualifying wins
- 457
- Top band share
- 3.1% of wins
- Top band in feed
- 50.0% of rows
- Over-representation
- 16.3x
Two distributions of the same 457 wins
The first column is what happened; the second is what was displayed. Both describe the same hour, and the difference between them is the editorial rule of the feed.
The hour’s wins, by band, and the feed’s rowsband wins share rows share ratio
250 - 500x 375 82.1% 2 16.7% 0.20x
500 - 2,000x 68 14.9% 4 33.3% 2.24x
2,000x and up 14 3.1% 6 50.0% 16.3x
total 457 100.0% 12 100.0%
mean multiple the feed’s mean is dragged up by its top band
median multiple 328x across the wins, 1,640x across the rows = 5.0x
The rarest band is not merely present in the feed; it is more than half of it. The most common band, which is four fifths of the hour’s wins, is a sixth of the rows.
Why the weighting is rational
A display is not obliged to sample fairly, and there is a reason it does not. Twelve rows taken proportionally from the bands would be ten small wins, one medium one and a fragment of a large one - which is a dull display and, more to the point, an unrepresentative one for the thing a feed is selling.
What the feed optimises
A row that reads as large, a feed that reads as busy, and a case at the edge of the range so the top of the display is a number worth looking at. Every one of those is served by taking rows from the top band, and none of them is served by sampling the middle.
What the reader needs
The share of wins in each band and the interval between one’s own wins, which are the two numbers the display is arranged not to show. They are also the two numbers a reader can estimate from the feed itself, by counting bands rather than reading amounts.
Measuring a feed from its own rows
The bands are visible in the rows even when the shares are not, so a reader can do the comparison the display will not. The method needs nothing but the feed and five minutes of attention.
- Count the rows and sort them into three rough bands - small, middle, large - using the display’s own ordering.
- Note how many rows fall in the top band. On a fair sample of a normal distribution of wins it would be a small minority; on the sample feed it is half.
- Divide each band’s share of rows by a sensible guess at its share of wins. A ratio far above 1 in the top band is the over-representation, and it is the feed’s editorial signature.
- Look for any row that is a small win at all. A feed with no small wins is a display of the tail by construction, and it has told you what it is.